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(ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE EDC \
15-02\(p2\))Tj
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(Date:)Tj
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(31 October 2002)Tj
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(Time:)Tj
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(9:00am - 12:30pm)Tj
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(Committee Room 1, National Assembly for Wales, Cardiff Bay)Tj
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(Title :)Tj
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(Quarterly Economic Report for Wales - October 2002)Tj
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(Executive Summary )Tj
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( )Tj
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(The fragile global recovery appears to be continuing though the optimism\
that was )Tj
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(emerging earlier in the year through surveys has not yet fed through int\
o the "real" )Tj
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(economy. Many forecasters are now predicting recovery later rather than \
sooner in )Tj
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(2003, about a year later than originally expected. )Tj
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(Falling high street sales together with a widening trade deficit have in\
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(the US recovery. However, on the plus side, the latest labour market dat\
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(In the UK the labour market has remained healthy with falling unemployme\
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( )Tj
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(Over the last twelve months Wales has out-performed the UK average with \
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(Manufacturing output in the UK unexpectedly stalled in August while in W\
ales output of )Tj
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(the production industries returned to growth on the back of recent busin\
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(Short term growth forecasts are being revised downwards though accelerat\
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(US GDP)Tj
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( growth fell back sharply in quarter 2 after a good first quarter. Both \
private investment )Tj
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(and consumption grew at a slower rate than in Q1. Despite the slowdown i\
n Q2 growth, the )Tj
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(Inflation remains low and downside risks remain leading the Federal Rese\
rve to leave interest )Tj
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(rates on hold at 1 \276%. They hinted that future cuts might be possible\
due to underlying risks to )Tj
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(the recovery.)Tj
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(Activity in the manufacturing sector declined in September after seven c\
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(expansion. Activity in the non-manufacturing sector, however, surged fol\
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(growth in recent months. )Tj
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(The recent drop in )Tj
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(consumer confidence)Tj
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( has finally fed through to the high street. Retail )Tj
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(sales fell by the largest amount in 10 months, and by twice as much as m\
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(predicted. At the same time, consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level\
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(represents such a large proportion of economic activity, a slowdown in c\
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(poses a significant potential threat to the US recovery. )Tj
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(But so far the US demand growth has helped support the world economy. Th\
e latest )Tj
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(US trade)Tj
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( )Tj
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(figures show that imports have risen considerably leading to a record tr\
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(billion. With many countries looking towards US sales to increase growth\
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(represents a significant boost. Whether this can continue will depend, h\
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(consumer expenditure. )Tj
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(The )Tj
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(seen in some areas. The impact of a large increase in exports and the re\
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(production are expected to spread to the overall economy. On the down-si\
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(number of business failures surges.)Tj
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(The recovery in )Tj
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( looks set to continue, though at a relatively slow pace. Second quarter\
)Tj
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(GDP grew slightly faster than the first quarter, partly fuelled by subdu\
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(contribution from exports fell away, however, but there was a substantia\
l pick-up in imports. )Tj
T*
(The difficulties in the manufacturing sector continue with Q2 growth lar\
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T*
(service sector. Weaker industrial production is also forecast to restric\
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(inflation)Tj
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( remains low and stable and interest rates are unchanged at 3.25%.)Tj
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(However, respondents from recent business surveys suggest that, economic\
activity in the )Tj
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(manufacturing and service sector fell across the Eurozone for the first \
time since early 2002. )Tj
T*
(Prospects across the Eurozone also deteriorated significantly in both se\
ctors, while service )Tj
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(sector employment fell at the fastest rate in survey history. )Tj
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(The fragile nature of the recovery in )Tj
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(Germany)Tj
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( was illustrated in the modest Q2 GDP growth )Tj
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(figures. The weakness of the economy was highlighted by the deterioratio\
n of a number of )Tj
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(leading indicators. Quarter-on-quarter industrial output has held up fai\
rly well but at the same )Tj
T*
(time the volume of new orders fell considerably according to survey evid\
ence, due primarily to )Tj
T*
(a marked weakening of foreign demand. Business confidence fell on the ba\
ck of the poor data )Tj
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(and fears over the strength of the global upturn.)Tj
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EMC
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(In )Tj
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(France)Tj
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( GDP grew by 0.5% in each of the first two quarters of 2002. However, co\
ncerns )Tj
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(over the labour market, highlighted by rising unemployment, and poor ind\
ustrial production )Tj
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(figures have caused concerns over future performance. )Tj
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(Domestic Situation)Tj
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14 0 0 14 10 703.1825 Tm
(UK GDP growth in Q3 2002 was similar to that in the previous quarter. Th\
e latest figures show )Tj
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(year on year growth of 1.7%. This is roughly in line with current expect\
ations, but below )Tj
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(forecasts earlier this year.)Tj
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(Headline inflation )Tj
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(in August rose to 1.7% and the underlying rate rose to 2.1%, though stil\
l )Tj
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(below the target rate of 2.5%. Although this rise was unexpected, the MP\
C judged that the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(course of inflation was still likely to remain within the target range a\
nd decided to leave interest )Tj
T*
(rates at 4%. The Governor of the Bank of England hinted that the next mo\
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(rates might even be downwards. This may further fuel)Tj
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( )Tj
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(the rise in)Tj
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( house prices)Tj
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( which have )Tj
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(continued to increase, with little sign of slowing.)Tj
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(The latest figures \(Q2 2002\) from the )Tj
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(Welsh Index of Production and Construction)Tj
/TT1 1 Tf
( show a )Tj
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(rise in the second quarter compared both to the first quarter and the se\
cond quarter of last )Tj
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(year. Comparing the latest 4 quarters with the previous 4 quarters the I\
ndex is still down. Much )Tj
T*
(of the decline is due to falls in the first half of last year, since the\
n the trend has been more )Tj
T*
(positive. Of particular note is the upturn in manufacturing where the co\
nfidence reported in the )Tj
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(sector over the previous quarters appears to have finally materialised. \
)Tj
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(Production figures released for the UK highlighted the stop-start nature\
of the recovery. )Tj
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(Manufacturing output stalled in August following a sharp increase in Jul\
y, though many )Tj
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(economic commentators had forecast significant growth. The overall produ\
ction index fell )Tj
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(slightly on July and remains down on last year\222s figure. )Tj
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(The slower than expected recovery in the Eurozone has hit )Tj
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(UK exports.)Tj
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( Exports to EU )Tj
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(countries fell by 9% with a slight fall to the rest of the world. Overal\
l, the trade deficit rose as )Tj
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(exports fell by a greater proportion than the fall in imports. )Tj
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(Given the current economic indicators many commentators have been surpri\
sed by the recent )Tj
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(strength of the labour market, but it has been consistently robust with \
unemployment tending )Tj
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(to fall and employment to rise. Over the last twelve months Wales has , \
if anything, out-)Tj
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(performed the UK average. Although )Tj
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(unemployment rates, )Tj
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(whether ILO or claimant count, in )Tj
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(the UK and Wales remain unchanged this month, over the year Wales had th\
e second largest )Tj
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(fall in the ILO unemployment rate of any region in the UK. On the LFS me\
asures, )Tj
/TT0 1 Tf
(total )Tj
0 -1.2271 TD
(employment )Tj
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(in Wales over the year has increased at a faster rate than the UK averag\
e and )Tj
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(the )Tj
/TT0 1 Tf
(inactivity)Tj
/TT1 1 Tf
( rate has declined at a faster rate. The employer-based ABI series shows\
that )Tj
T*
(employment falls in some sectors, notably manufacturing have been more t\
han offset by )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(increases in the rest of the economy, notably construction and public ad\
ministration and health.)Tj
ET
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/TT0 1 Tf
14 0 0 14 10 48.54652 Tm
(Retail sales)Tj
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( rose in the month of September but the rate of growth was lower than in\
August. )Tj
ET
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(The September figures show the lowest rate of annual growth since Januar\
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(Nevertheless, there are no signs of a large fall in the growth of consum\
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(Global Outlook)Tj
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(While the global recovery is expected to continue, it will be weaker and\
slower than originally )Tj
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(expected, according to the IMF. Global growth is forecast to be 2.8% in \
2002 \(as forecast )Tj
T*
(earlier in the year\) with recovery expected in 2003 with growth at 3.7%\
, a downward revision )Tj
T*
(from six months ago. Among the industrial countries, the recovery in the\
US is now expected )Tj
T*
(to be considerably weaker than earlier thought. Euro area projections ha\
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(while forecasts for Japan have been revised upwards. )Tj
ET
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(However, contrary to the view that the global recovery will be slow and \
fragile, the OECD )Tj
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(forecast strong growth in 2003 )Tj
/TT1 1 Tf
(and)Tj
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( 2002 believing that the growth will be driven by )Tj
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(Domestic Outlook and Assessment)Tj
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(Economic Forecasts)Tj
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(The latest average of )Tj
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(Independent Forecasts)Tj
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( compiled by HM Treasury \(October 2002\) )Tj
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(forecast UK economy to grow by 1.6% in 2002, unchanged from September bu\
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0 -1.2 TD
(August forecast. The forecast for 2003 has also been revised downwards b\
y 0.1 percentage )Tj
T*
(points in each month since August to stand at 2.5%. These forecasts are \
below the Treasury's )Tj
T*
(Budget forecasts of 2-2.5% this year and 3-3.5% next year. There are now\
indications that )Tj
T*
(Treasury forecasts to be published in the Pre-Budget Report may be revis\
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(light of recent data.)Tj
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(The latest forecasts published by )Tj
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(Cambridge Econometrics)Tj
/TT0 1 Tf
( \(July 2002\) forecast UK GVA )Tj
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(\(GDP at basic prices\) to increase by 1.8% in 2002 with growth recoveri\
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0 -1.2 TD
(Cambridge Econometrics forecast the Welsh economy to grow by 1.3% in 200\
2 and 2.4% in )Tj
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(2003. More recent forecasts by Business Strategies are due to be publish\
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(Current Business Conditions)Tj
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(The main surveys have reported mixed views regarding)Tj
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( Business confidence. )Tj
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(The CBI report )Tj
0 -1.22711 TD
(that a higher proportion of Welsh manufacturers reported a fall in confi\
dence than last quarter. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(The BCC, in contrast, reported that business confidence remains high des\
pite a slight fall. Both )Tj
T*
(surveys reported that confidence amongst Welsh manufacturers is above le\
vels recorded in )Tj
T*
(the UK as a whole. In the service sector, BCC report that turnover prosp\
ects in Wales )Tj
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(improved on last quarter while confidence regarding future profits fell.\
In the UK, both )Tj
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(measures of confidence fell. )Tj
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(There were also mixed signals from the business surveys regarding)Tj
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( )Tj
/TT0 1 Tf
(domestic )Tj
/TT1 1 Tf
(sales and )Tj
0 -1.22711 TD
(orders)Tj
/TT0 1 Tf
(. New orders \(UK-level\) in manufacturing and service sector firms incr\
eased according )Tj
0 -1.2271 TD
(to the CIPS Purchasing Manager\222s Index \(PMI\), while the BCC reporte\
d a different picture, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(particularly in Wales. Domestic sales and orders showed marked deteriora\
tion in the )Tj
T*
(manufacturing sector with contraction reported following several quarter\
s of growth. Domestic )Tj
T*
(sales and orders in the service sector in Wales showed expansion, while \
the situation in the )Tj
T*
(UK showed slight expansion, unchanged from last quarter. The strong perf\
ormance of Welsh )Tj
T*
(manufacturers in the export markets continues, with increased orders and\
sales, well above )Tj
T*
(UK levels. )Tj
ET
EMC
/P <>BDC
BT
/TT0 1 Tf
14 0 0 14 10 567.14149 Tm
(Survey results show that manufacturing firms continue to downsize. The m\
ajority of Welsh )Tj
T*
(manufacturing companies reported a reduction in their )Tj
/TT1 1 Tf
(employment levels,)Tj
/TT0 1 Tf
( with future falls )Tj
0 -1.22711 TD
(expected. The majority of service sector firms increased employment and \
are forecast to do so )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(again during the forthcoming quarter in both Wales and the UK. However t\
he CIPS survey )Tj
T*
(showed companies reduced employment in both sectors, with further deteri\
oration expected.)Tj
ET
EMC
/P <>BDC
BT
/TT1 1 Tf
14 0 0 14 10 464.14149 Tm
(Economic Advice Division)Tj
T*
(September 2002)Tj
ET
EMC
Q
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